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WMO Warns El Niño Could Make 2026 the Hottest Year on Record
The world is already running unusually hot, and El Niño may be about to turn the dial higher. According to the World Meteorological Organization, an exceptionally strong El Niño is amplifying human-caused global warming and could help make 2026 the hottest year ever recorded.
The WMO’s State of the Climate Update 2026 places the global average surface temperature for January to September at about 1.47°C above the 1850 to 1900 pre-industrial average. With El Niño gaining strength since August, the full-year figure is likely to rise further.
That update landed as governments opened the annual United Nations climate talks in Antalya, Türkiye, giving negotiators a stark backdrop: the climate system is not waiting for policy to catch up.
El Niño is adding heat to an already warmer planet
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that starts in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During an El Niño event, unusually warm surface waters spread across the central and eastern Pacific. That extra ocean heat affects weather patterns around the world.
On its own, El Niño can raise global temperatures for a period of months. It can also shift rainfall, winds and storm tracks. In some regions, that means heavier rain and flooding. In others, it means drought, heatwaves and wildfire risk.
This time, the effect is landing on top of a long-term warming trend caused by greenhouse gas emissions. That is why the WMO warning matters. El Niño is not creating the climate crisis by itself, but it can amplify the heat already trapped by human activity.
That combination helps explain why a strong event can push a year into record territory. The planet’s baseline temperature is higher than it was decades ago, so natural climate swings now play out on a warmer stage.
The 1.47°C figure is close to a major threshold
The WMO’s January to September measurement of about 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average is striking because it sits close to the 1.5°C level often discussed in climate policy.
That does not mean the long-term 1.5°C threshold has already been permanently crossed. Climate targets are usually judged over longer periods, not a single year or a few months. A temporary spike can happen during a powerful El Niño.
Still, a year near or above that level carries real meaning. It shows how little room remains before extreme heat becomes even more common.
A single hot year does not define the climate trend, but it can show how close the world is to dangerous levels of warming.
The WMO expects the annual figure to rise further because El Niño strengthened after August. That timing matters. Global temperature records often reflect both the background warming trend and the delayed effect of ocean heat moving through the climate system.
If 2026 does become the hottest year on record, it would not be a surprise out of nowhere. It would be the result of a warming planet meeting a powerful natural heat boost.
Extreme weather risks may grow stronger in 2027
The WMO expects El Niño to exert a greater influence on temperatures and extreme weather in 2027. That is because the effects of El Niño often continue after the event has developed, with impacts spreading through atmospheric and ocean systems over time.
The exact pattern varies by region, but strong El Niño events are commonly linked with:
Higher global average temperatures
More intense heatwaves in some regions
Drought risk in places that usually become drier during El Niño
Heavier rainfall and flooding in regions sensitive to Pacific warming
Stress on crops, water supplies and ecosystems
Increased risk of coral bleaching during marine heat events
No single flood, drought or heatwave can be blamed on El Niño alone without careful analysis. Weather events have many drivers. But El Niño can raise the odds of certain extremes, especially when it interacts with the broader warming trend.
That is the key point behind the WMO warning. The world is not facing a normal El Niño in a stable climate. It is facing a strong El Niño in a climate already made hotter and more volatile by greenhouse gas emissions.
The warning sharpens the stakes at the UN climate talks
The timing of the WMO update is politically significant. Its publication coincided with the opening of the annual United Nations climate talks in Antalya, Türkiye.
Climate negotiations often turn on long-term goals: emissions cuts by 2030, finance pledges, adaptation plans and the future of fossil fuels. The WMO update brings those discussions back to present conditions. The climate is already changing fast enough to test infrastructure, food systems and emergency planning.
For governments, the message is practical as well as symbolic. A hotter 2026 and a more disruptive 2027 would increase pressure to prepare for heat, floods, drought and crop stress. That preparation includes:
Stronger early warning systems
Heat action plans for cities and vulnerable communities
Better water management during drought
Flood defences and safer land-use planning
Support for farmers facing shifting rainfall and temperature patterns
Faster cuts to greenhouse gas emissions
Adaptation can reduce harm, but it cannot replace emissions cuts. The more the planet warms, the harder and more expensive adaptation becomes.
What this means for the year ahead
The phrase “hottest year on record” can sound abstract, but it points to concrete risks. Higher global temperature does not mean every place is hot all the time. It means the climate system carries more heat, which can increase the chance and severity of extremes.
That extra heat can show up in different ways: warmer nights, longer heatwaves, hotter seas, melting ice, stronger downpours and stressed ecosystems. In daily life, the effects may appear through higher cooling demand, disrupted harvests, water restrictions or more dangerous outdoor working conditions.
The WMO’s warning also shows why records keep falling. Natural patterns such as El Niño still matter, but they now operate in a world transformed by human-caused warming. When a strong natural warming event arrives, it can push temperatures into new territory.
The takeaway is clear. El Niño may help decide whether 2026 becomes the hottest year ever measured, and its influence could grow in 2027. But the deeper driver remains the continued build-up of greenhouse gases. Cutting emissions and preparing for extremes are no longer separate tasks. They are the same climate challenge, seen from two angles.
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